OVERVIEW

Every year, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) releases a new Immigration Levels Plan which provides immigration projections/targets for the next three years. These targets are largely developed to reflect Canada’s economic needs however, they also consider the impact of global humanitarian needs. For the settlement and integration sector, the Levels Plan functions as both an early notice of expected immigration levels as well as an indicator of the current perceptions of immigration within Canada.

This year’s announcement was especially anticipated for a number of reasons. Earlier in the year, the government of Canada announced that this year’s Levels Plan would for the first time include temporary residents’ numbers, an addition that the settlement sector had been petitioning for quite some time. In addition, whereas the past years had seen steady growth in the number of targeted newcomers, Canadian media highly speculated that this year’s levels plan would see a significant reduction in levels.

As well, National Sector Engagement meetings are happening this week in Ottawa. A few key notes related to the discussions regarding the Call for Proposal notification letters and the Settlement Allocation Model (SAM) are on page 5.

Highlights and Analysis:

• The 2025 priority categories include: health care occupations, trade occupations, and French-language proficiency. Categories are established each year, informed by labour market information and projections as well as input received from partners, including provinces and territories, and stakeholders across the country
• More than 40% of anticipated permanent resident admissions in 2025 will be from those who are already in Canada as temporary residents.
• Focuses on economic immigration, with approximately 62% of total permanent resident admissions that will be dedicated to the economic class, in key sectors such as health and trades, by 2027
• Compared to last year’s plan, overall planned admissions of permanent residents are:
  • 395,000 in 2025
  • 380,000 in 2026
  • 365,000 in 2027
• Temporary Residents admission numbers align with Government of Canada’s plan to decrease the number of temporary residents to 5% of the total population over the next three years
• Compared to each previous year, we will see Canada’s temporary population decline by
  • 445,901 in 2025
  • 445,662 in 2026
  • followed by a modest increase of 17,439 in 2027

When comparing this year’s figures, not only is there a substantive drop in the overall targets, 105,000 fewer planned permanent resident admissions for 2025 than what last year’s plan indicated, a 21% drop, but the downward trajectory is in complete opposition to the targets presented in the previous two plans. When examining the Immigration Levels Plans released in 2022 and 2023, there is a clear growth and stabilization pattern present and in fact there is very little difference in targets between the two. For example both plans held a target of 485,000 planned permanent resident admissions in 2024 and 500,000 in 2025. In comparison, this year’s plan shows substantial drops in each immigration category, including economic immigrants, and does not align itself with the previously established pattern. In fact, rather than stabilization, there are seemingly continuous cuts making it difficult to predict what the target levels will look like come November 1, 2025, and if there will be even more reductions. As we see planned targets return to pre-pandemic levels, we are entering into uncharted territory and as more and more information is released, we will continue to keep our membership updated.

Potential Impact of Changes

With the decreasing immigration numbers, questions arise regarding the impact that this will have on the labour market and the economy.

Previous data shows that most immigrants coming to Canada are of working age (between 25 to 54 years of age) and are bringing a fresh and skilled workforce to the country and to the province. Additionally, an increase in the share of immigrant workers has been positively linked to firm productivity growth. A 10-point increase in immigrant workers is associated with a 1.5% rise in productivity, which in turn leads to higher wages for employees and greater business profits.

In B.C. there will be close to 1 million job openings over the next decade. Coupled with growing rates of population going into retirement, and the natural population growth falling to the point where by 2030, overall population growth is expected to be fueled entirely by immigration.

Additionally, while the announcement mentions an anticipated impact being a reduction in the housing supply gap, what we know is that while newcomers certainly play a role in housing demand, they are not responsible for the current housing crisis, nor will reducing immigration address the actual structural improvements needed to resolve it. Out of the key variables that have led to the housing crisis we currently find ourselves in, housing supply challenges are often touted as being directly linked to immigration levels, when in fact there are several contributing factors including zoning restrictions, prolonged permitting processes, and a shortage of construction workers. The 2024 Federal Budget even lists construction workers as one of the country’s essential needs maintained by Immigration.

More detailed analysis of the potential impacts will be released in the following weeks.

TABLES & FIGURES

You will find graphics and figure in the following pages.

Permanent Residents

The chart below breaks down the immigration targets for permanent residents into 4 main categories (Economic, Family, Refugees and Protected Persons and Humanitarian & Compassionate) and compares the targets released for this year’s Levels Plan with the target released from the previous year.

Temporary Residents

The chart below breaks down the immigration targets for temporary residents into two main categories: workers and students and compares the planned levels across the next three years.

For comparison, these are the number of study and/or work permits issued to temporary residents in 2023 and 2024.